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Submitted 2019-01-09 05:54:05 There is another 60 percent chance cold and heavy rain will merely swell the berries
by 5-10 percent, decreasing their concentration. This will cause the worse grape quality
that can only be sold for $2.00 per bottle. Now we can make an assumption and calculate
the total profit if Jaeger harvests later and the storm did strike. We can use the EMV
method to calculate the revenue.
Developed beneficial Botrytis mold: $8x1000x12x40%x70% = $26,880
Not from botrytis mold : $2x1000x12x60% = 14,400
The total revenue is: 26,880 + 14 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Jersey ,400 = $41,280
On the other hand, if the rainstorm did not strike, Jaeger could wait until the grapes
ripen more fully, which has only a 40% chance to make a good wine. The price for this is
$3.50 per bottle. However Michael Carter-Williams Jersey , there is a 40% chance of the grapes becoming a lighter wine,
which can be sold to the wholesale for $3.00 per bottle. The other 20% chance is that it
will lead to a low acidic wine, which only can be sold for $2.50 per bottle. Now we can
assume and calculate for the total profit if Jaeger harvests later and the storm did not
strike.
Good wine: $3.5x1000x12x40% = $16,800
Lighter wine : $3.0x1000x12x40% = $14,400
Low acidic wine: $2.5x1000x12x20% = $6 Marvin Williams Jersey ,000
The total revenue is: $16,800+$14,400+$6,000 = $37,200
As a result Malik Monk Jersey , the revenue for not harvesting immediately is $41,280 x0.5 +
$37,200x0.5 = $39,240 The second possible option is to harvest the grapes before the storm comes. Even
though Jaeger can avoid a huge loss by doing this, he cannot sell those for a good price
because the grapes are not completely ready to be made into a high quality wine. It
contains risk. Therefore Jeremy Lamb Jersey , the not-quite-ripe grapes will directly affect the quality. They
can be sold for $2.85 p FL Jerseys Free Shipping[/url]